Replacing Biden (and why it's very unlikely to happen)

Some notes from a freakout

In February, New York Times columnist Ezra Klein made the case that the Democratic Party should replace Joe Biden as its nominee for President in 2024. Klein argued that Biden has been a very good president and is still up to the task of *being* president. But, Klein contended, it was a risky proposition to believe Biden was up to the task of successfully campaigning for President at this stage of his life. And the risk of a second Trump presidency was too great to gamble on Biden as a capable campaigner in 2024. Therefore, Klein argued, Biden should step down, for the good of the country and allow the Democratic Party, at its nominating convention in August, to pick a different candidate, from among California Governor Gavin Newsom, Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, and others, any of whom could campaign more vigorously than Biden and without his accumulated liabilities.

That argument, which generated intense debate and discussion in Democratic circles for a couple of weeks, was largely sidelined by President Biden’s generally vigorous State of the Union address three weeks later.

After last night, of course, it’s back with a vengeance.

Especially for the first half hour of the debate, Biden was halting, often mumbled, lost his train of thought on more than one occasion and looked undeniably diminished next to his blustering opponent. While Trump barreled ahead, Biden struggled to gain his footing. The totality of Biden’s performance last night - his campaign says he had a cold - reinforced every anxiety Democratic supporters have about Biden’s campaign fitness. The post-debate analysis was as dire as you would expect, given both what we all saw on our screens last night and the neurotic tendencies of much of our tribe. To take one snapshot of the freakout, I’m looking at the New York Times home screen right now - longtime op-ed columnists Tom Friedman, Frank Bruni and Nicholas Kristof are all calling for Biden to make room immediately for a new nominee.

I’m not here this morning to tell you all that it’s all going to be ok. But two things are worth keeping in mind. One, this was always going to be a close race and last night did not, by itself, change that. Presidential debates get a level of attention out of proportion to their ultimate impact on an election. All of the polling averages currently show a dead heat. My guess is that there will be some movement in Trump’s direction in the next few days, and also that whatever post-debate bump he receives is likely to recede. I say that in part based on historical precedent. Of course, just because something has happened before is no guarantee that it will happen again. On the one hand, Biden’s performance wasn’t just shaky last night. It reinforced the single most damaging narrative his campaign has to confront - that he’s too old for the job. On the other, a June debate is unprecedentedly early. I know it’s hard for political obsessives to believe this (and that term applies to almost anyone who would read a substack like this one), but many Americans are still not paying close attention to the election. That doesn’t mean they won’t hear about last night - most certainly will. But with over four months to go before election day, other factors will have a greater influence on most of the people still deciding who to vote for. And real engagement with and interest in the campaign will be greater at the end of the summer than it is now.

Two, as NBC helpfully explained this morning, the process for replacing a nominee (very much including a sitting President) is very complicated, and almost impossible against his or her will. As NBC notes, the Democratic National Committee, the ostensible vehicle by which the process of replacing Biden would unfold, largely serves at the pleasure of the President. Its chair, Jaime Harrison, is a close Biden ally (that’s how he got the job). Beyond that fact, Biden just won 99% (literally) of the delegates to the Democratic Convention from this year’s primaries. They are technically free to vote their conscience at the convention, but they are Biden delegates because they are Biden loyalists. So, unless Biden agrees to step down, or suffers a health event that incapacitates him, there is no replacing him. And it’s hard to imagine that, having come this far, Biden is in any mood to do that. One thing I think ordinary people (including me) have trouble appreciating is just how competitive and ego-driven politicians are. That’s not necessarily an insult, in and of itself. It’s part of the constitution necessary to want to seek out higher office, especially the presidency. And especially when you are already the president. If I had to guess what Biden is thinking this morning, it’s likely much closer to “f— all those naysayers, I’ll show them” than “well, gee, maybe my critics were right.”

But even if Biden were to step aside, most people who dream of their preferred candidate riding into save the day (including lots of people who texted me last night) are not necessarily going to get their way. Among those who want Biden to step down, the most common replacement names to crop up are the two I mentioned above - Newsom and Whitmer. But that ignores the fact that Kamala Harris is Vice President of the United States. Harris has no special claim on the nomination if Biden steps down. But unless she’s your preference to replace Biden, and most of the commentary assumes she would not be the best-positioned to beat Trump, attempting to leapfrog her would create myriad political problems. Black women represent the single most steadfast Democratic constituency. Does anyone want to confidently predict that sidelining Harris for one of the other people I mentioned won’t significantly undermine support for the Democratic nominee among that group of voters? More generally, the party would be thrown into chaos in ways that, to many ordinary people who mostly get their news by glimpsing headlines or listening to what their more engaged friends have to say, might not inspire confidence in any Democratic nominee. And what polling there had been earlier this year about Newsom or Whitmer versus Trump was not all that comforting.

So, here we are. My recommendation would be (as best as you’re able) to ignore commentary for the next few days. Pundits are prisoners of the moment. They will exaggerate the significance of this one event. That doesn’t mean all is well. But President Biden isn’t going to stop wanting to win reelection because he had a bad night last night and no one’s going to replace him if he doesn’t want to be replaced. We were in for a slog to the finish line before last night, and we still are today.

(I know it’s been a minute. I was leading a summer study abroad program for the last month with seventeen awesome students. I am hoping to resume more regular writing here and welcome to new subscribers).