Great to have you back-- so much good stuff! I especially liked your comments on No Kings. I have quite enjoyed participating in all these myself and have been telling the cynics there's real value in them. The problem is, indeed, that people expect far too much. These rallies will not stop Trump, of course, but they *do* provide important solidarity and send a strong message against doomerism and cynicism.
Good to hear from you. I am glad you see it similarly. These are not electoral events. But they still matter! And yes, fighting doomerism, especially for the more neurotic end of the political spectrum is really important. I hope you're well.
1. I want the Palestinians to have a (demilitarized) state. Isn’t “neutralizing” Iran necessary before this can happen?
2. I don’t want China to conquer Taiwan or ignore US copyright and patent laws. Does cutting off their access to oil give the US leverage in negotiating with China?
I’m against war, but I think to understand this one we have to ask 1. Who profits? And 2. What was its real purpose? Just because Trump and his dwindling idiot supporters can’t articulate answers for us doesn’t mean they don’t exist. I’d like to hear at least some hypotheses. Is Trump really calling the shots? Is the military? Are members of the Trilateral Commission or the older Bilderburg Commission?
I don't think "neutralizing" Iran is a realistic goal. I think this war is showing that. Yes, they can be degraded. But to the point where they can no longer exercise leverage regionally? Doubtful. China seems like they won't have a problem getting oil and they have a much longer term view of almost everything, it seems, than do their adversaries. That includes the astounding leaps they're making in renewables. Indeed, smart analysts are noting how much the global trade order might come to be further oriented around them, given US unreliability, etc. If you're worried about China, the current war is not helping.
Certainly, it' s important to understand who benefits from war, not just this one, but always. I think Netanyahu benefits, for sure. Does that mean Israel does, especially in the longer term? Dubious, at best. Maybe some narrow economic interests. But it's quite clear almost everyone loses. Oh, except maybe the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. They seem quite happy. I don't think one needs to think conspiratorially to understand why Trump did what he did. He had his own stupid reasons, got plenty of prompting from Israel and maybe Saudi Arabia, and there's no one to tell him no.
Points taken. So then there will not be a Palestinian state?
I think of patron states and their clients. Israel always picked the best patrons—from Britain to France (mirage jets won the 6 day war) to the US —as power shifted in the region. The Palestinians chose very badly. Perhaps they had no real choice … Anyway, peace and a Palestinian state depends upon a convergence of interests between the patron states.
Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, (not to mention Western Europe and the US) will never agree to an independent Palestine that is armed. I’m against war, but can economic pressure succeed? It looks to me like they’ve given up on that. Ideology, in the service of the mullahs, has trumped economic self interest. By that I mean that economic development leading to prosperity would come at the expense of the mullahs (who inherit their position yet produce nothing). Economic development would lead to people emerging with wealth and thus power who would replace the old guard and their mullahs. That’s why the (hidden) power figures in Iran support the mullahs. The mullahs use (mis-use!) Islamic ideology to oppose western “materialism” and a resulting shift in power.
I think that the problem with the commentariat is that they’re looking at this through a moral lens. But politics and maybe history itself is amoral.
Along these lines—Power figures have to grow (in a universe that is dynamic). They protect themselves by remaining mostly hidden. Authority figures are public and dependent on Power to remain in office, and are expendable. Even the president works for a living and is temporary. (Power tends to remain constant and is independent of ideology. They donate to both parties and on the end “own” whoever wins an election.) So who’s behind this Authority figure? The answer to that question would explain this seemingly moronic war.
This may sound like a conspiracy theory but, even in poker, players do not show their hand. 🤔
This is comprehensive and comprehensible (and well written). But the Dems. have to be more than just anti-Trump to get people to come and vote. And if his voting bill gets passed, there’s a lot to do to make everyone eligible to vote.
Let's say the D's win, I think you are right. I'm more worried about their ability to legislate. I think more than anything people want action that helps people over corporations. I have very little confidence of this happening.
I appreciate your note. Unfortunately, at least until 2028, not much can happen on the legislative front as Trump can veto what he doesn't like. I completely agree about what the agenda needs to put front and center. I am afraid that can't happen in the near term.
Great to have you back-- so much good stuff! I especially liked your comments on No Kings. I have quite enjoyed participating in all these myself and have been telling the cynics there's real value in them. The problem is, indeed, that people expect far too much. These rallies will not stop Trump, of course, but they *do* provide important solidarity and send a strong message against doomerism and cynicism.
Hi Steve,
Good to hear from you. I am glad you see it similarly. These are not electoral events. But they still matter! And yes, fighting doomerism, especially for the more neurotic end of the political spectrum is really important. I hope you're well.
1. I want the Palestinians to have a (demilitarized) state. Isn’t “neutralizing” Iran necessary before this can happen?
2. I don’t want China to conquer Taiwan or ignore US copyright and patent laws. Does cutting off their access to oil give the US leverage in negotiating with China?
I’m against war, but I think to understand this one we have to ask 1. Who profits? And 2. What was its real purpose? Just because Trump and his dwindling idiot supporters can’t articulate answers for us doesn’t mean they don’t exist. I’d like to hear at least some hypotheses. Is Trump really calling the shots? Is the military? Are members of the Trilateral Commission or the older Bilderburg Commission?
Jon,
I don't think "neutralizing" Iran is a realistic goal. I think this war is showing that. Yes, they can be degraded. But to the point where they can no longer exercise leverage regionally? Doubtful. China seems like they won't have a problem getting oil and they have a much longer term view of almost everything, it seems, than do their adversaries. That includes the astounding leaps they're making in renewables. Indeed, smart analysts are noting how much the global trade order might come to be further oriented around them, given US unreliability, etc. If you're worried about China, the current war is not helping.
Certainly, it' s important to understand who benefits from war, not just this one, but always. I think Netanyahu benefits, for sure. Does that mean Israel does, especially in the longer term? Dubious, at best. Maybe some narrow economic interests. But it's quite clear almost everyone loses. Oh, except maybe the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. They seem quite happy. I don't think one needs to think conspiratorially to understand why Trump did what he did. He had his own stupid reasons, got plenty of prompting from Israel and maybe Saudi Arabia, and there's no one to tell him no.
Points taken. So then there will not be a Palestinian state?
I think of patron states and their clients. Israel always picked the best patrons—from Britain to France (mirage jets won the 6 day war) to the US —as power shifted in the region. The Palestinians chose very badly. Perhaps they had no real choice … Anyway, peace and a Palestinian state depends upon a convergence of interests between the patron states.
Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, (not to mention Western Europe and the US) will never agree to an independent Palestine that is armed. I’m against war, but can economic pressure succeed? It looks to me like they’ve given up on that. Ideology, in the service of the mullahs, has trumped economic self interest. By that I mean that economic development leading to prosperity would come at the expense of the mullahs (who inherit their position yet produce nothing). Economic development would lead to people emerging with wealth and thus power who would replace the old guard and their mullahs. That’s why the (hidden) power figures in Iran support the mullahs. The mullahs use (mis-use!) Islamic ideology to oppose western “materialism” and a resulting shift in power.
I think that the problem with the commentariat is that they’re looking at this through a moral lens. But politics and maybe history itself is amoral.
Along these lines—Power figures have to grow (in a universe that is dynamic). They protect themselves by remaining mostly hidden. Authority figures are public and dependent on Power to remain in office, and are expendable. Even the president works for a living and is temporary. (Power tends to remain constant and is independent of ideology. They donate to both parties and on the end “own” whoever wins an election.) So who’s behind this Authority figure? The answer to that question would explain this seemingly moronic war.
This may sound like a conspiracy theory but, even in poker, players do not show their hand. 🤔
Thanks for being hopeful especially about him not being able to steal, or in my imagination, cancel the midterms. I’ll try to be hopeful too.
Hi Emily,
All we can do is try!
This is comprehensive and comprehensible (and well written). But the Dems. have to be more than just anti-Trump to get people to come and vote. And if his voting bill gets passed, there’s a lot to do to make everyone eligible to vote.
Let's say the D's win, I think you are right. I'm more worried about their ability to legislate. I think more than anything people want action that helps people over corporations. I have very little confidence of this happening.
Charlie,
I appreciate your note. Unfortunately, at least until 2028, not much can happen on the legislative front as Trump can veto what he doesn't like. I completely agree about what the agenda needs to put front and center. I am afraid that can't happen in the near term.